On paper of course, Tim Sylvia should kill Randy Couture - he's much bigger, has a better record, lots of KOs, and Couture has been getting KOd lately. In addition, Couture's last two losses in the heavyweight division (after which he moved down to light heavy to upset the Iceman at UFC 43), were to bigger men: Ricco Rodriguez and Josh Barnett. All in all, the matchup would seem to be a bad one for Captain America.
But if there's a crucial difference, it's that the two big men who beat Randy were large grapplers. Tim Sylvia may crow about his ground skills and claim to have made Jeff Monson 'gurgle', but he clearly does not have the ground skills of a Barnett or Rodriquez. If he's going to dominate the Natural, it's going to be on the feet.
And while a big man should be harder to take down, Sylvia is tall and gangly, with long legs that are just begging to grabbed. We've never really seen Sylvia's bottom game against someone with a legitimate ground and pound attack. It may be that Randy Couture has the tools to upset Sylvia and win a record fifth UFC title.
That said, I still think the odds rest with Sylvia. Call it 65/35 Sylvia.
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